Thursday, April 16, 2015

Wednesday, December 10, 2014

Effects of Weather in Fantasy Football

It seems intuitive to believe that weather plays a huge role in the fantasy performance of different positions in the NFL. When we see a quarterback struggle mightily in a snowstorm, it is easy to jump to the conclusion that weather has a significant impact on the fantasy performance of players. When deciding the players to start for a particular week, weather seems to be a reasonable variable to take into account. Another variable to take into consideration when making such decisions is the opponents the players are facing. Is weather as significant to this decision as opponent defenses? The focus here is on quarterbacks and running backs, though kickers presumably could be strongly affected by weather as teams rarely attempt field goals or even kicks for the extra point in extreme weather conditions.

Thursday, October 23, 2014

An Update on Positional Adjustment

Positional Adjustment has always been a point of contention about WAR. While most understand the principle of positional adjustment, I doubt that anyone has really scrutinized the process behind the values for positional adjustment. The established values for positional adjustment were developed by Tom Tango using UZR data for players who switch positions over multiple years. He took some liberty with the numbers, and adjusted the values based on relation to offensive value and his own intuition. I have always wondered why so few people questioned these values and accepted them as they are, so I decided to verify these values on a slightly different methodology.