The All-Star Game is over and every team has completed at least half of its schedule this year. The Baltimore Orioles, with a record of 45-40, have exceeded any expectation their fans have for them before the season. However, results drive expectations, and fans are looking for a playoff spot now
rather than a winning record. A closer look at the Orioles' performance, though, shows a great amount of luck, and the team would have to improve to maintain their record.
There are 3 aspects of a baseball game: pitching, batting, and fielding. The Orioles are below average in every aspect, but has a record of over 0.500 winning percentage. The hero of the first half is undoubtedly the bullpen. The Orioles' bullpen ranks third in innings pitched in the American League, while ranking first in ERA in the league. The bullpen has been the main reason that the Orioles are 16-6 in one-run games and 9-2 in extra-innings games. Almost every Orioles reliever is having a good season, with 6 relievers having an ERA lower than 3, namely Jim Johnson, Pedro Strop, Luis Ayala, Matt Lindstrom, Darren O'Day, and Dana Eveland. It will be difficult for the bullpen to repeat the success they had in the first half, but it will not be outrageous to expect them to be one of the top-5 bullpens in the league for the rest of the year.
Now that I have covered the good, it's time to move on to the bad. The starting pitchers of the Orioles have been so inconsistent that 3 of the 5 have been demoted to triple-A. The other two, Jason Hammel and Wei-Yin Chen, have been much better than even the front office could have hoped for. Both have an ERA under 4 and are more than capable of holding the top 2 spots of the rotation. The other 3 members of the rotation, Brian Matusz, Jake Arrieta, and Tommy Hunter, all have ERA over 5, with Arrieta's and Hunter's topping 6. Arrieta and Matusz have shown signs of brilliance between breakdowns, while Hunter is a disaster waiting to happen every time he pitches. Miguel Gonzalez and Chris Tillman have been great in their lone starts, and would likely stay in the rotation until they implode. I expect the rotation to be comprised of Hammel, Chen, Tillman, Arrieta, and recently recovered Zach Britton in the second half, with Matusz and Gonzalez as replacements if any of the five gets hurt or declines in performance. This group has a really bright future with good stuff from Arrieta, Matusz, Britton, and Tillman. It is time for some of them to realize their potential to give the Orioles a chance to compete this season. Regression is likely for Hammel and Chen in the second half, but the back end of the rotation can only improve, either by replacements or improvement in performance.
The hitting has been poor as well, after a sizzling start in April led by Adam Jones and Matt Wieters. The Orioles rank fourth last in AVG, third last in OBP, fifth last in SLG, and fourth last in OPS. Adam Jones has a breakout season so far with 20 homers and an OPS of 0.864. Wieters is providing plus offense behind the plate with an OPS of 0.758. Chris Davis has been adequate with his bat with 14 homers and an OPS of 0.788. Other than the trio, the team has been a disappointment with the bat. Wilson Betemit has been better than expected, but does not provide enough offense for a third baseman. JJ Hardy has 12 homers, but has a OBP of 0.262, and is batting second. Robert Andino also has an OBP under 0.300, but has no pop in his bat. Nick Markakis has been average when he is healthy, but has missed games for a month. Mark Reynolds has only 7 homers, though his OBP of 0.335 is top in the team. The acquisition of Jim Thome should give a boost to the team's OBP, but it's unlikely that he alone can change the team's overall batting performance. The Orioles need more production from Hardy and Andino especially, as they will be everyday players at second base and shortstop, given Brian Roberts' injury. Barring a trade, the Orioles will have difficulty just to become league average in batting.
Now the bad has been covered, let's move on to the ugly. The Orioles lead the league in errors by an unhealthy margin. They have more than twice the errors the Mariners or the White Sox have committed. The Orioles have holes in their defense at left field, first base and third base. I am being kind here, confident that the errors Jones, Wieters and Andino committed in the first half are fluky. The corner outfield spots have been terrible with infields playing the positions due to injuries to Markakis and Endy Chavez. Right field will be set once Markakis returns, but it will be a question who play left field. Do you play an infielder like Chris Davis there for offense? Or do you play Chavez/Xavier Avery with a limited bat there? To me, defense is more important and Chris Davis should play first base with Mark Reynolds platooning with Jim Thome as DH. That does not really solve the defensive issue at first base, but that is one position the team should sacrifice defense. On the other hand, defense at third base is crucial and Betemit and Reynolds have been atrocious. Reynolds is so bad that the Orioles have forbidden him from playing there, though he may not be much worse than Betemit. Together the Orioles third basemen have committed 21 errors, by far the most in the league at the position. The more difficult problem is that there seems to be no in-house solution. Ryan Flaherty may be better defensively, but does not have the bat to play third base. The situation at third base looks like the most serious problem for the Orioles in the second half.
Looking at all the flaws the Orioles have, the team will have to improve in order to stay in the playoff race. The team can hope that their players improve in performance, or they can trade for some solutions. The biggest holes right now should be a third baseman and starting pitchers. Chase Headley is a perfect fit for the Orioles. He has an OBP of 0.368, which will be the highest in the team by a large margin, and has only committed 5 errors so far this season. He and Markakis can serve as the top two hitter in the lineup to provide some baserunners. As for starting pitching, a veteran like Joe Saunders or Wandy Rodriguez would certainly improve the team, and the Orioles would not have to trade valuable prospects for them, like they have to if they were to acquire Zach Greinke.
The Orioles are probably playing over their head in the first half. Unless they pull off a major trade for Greinke, they will likely regress to the team everyone expects them to be at the start of the season. However, if they can add some pieces to the roster, though they will not challenge for a playoff position, they may finish the season with a winning record, something they have not done since 1997. That will be a major surprise for a team analysts predicted to have 100 losses coming into the season, and major step forward in the rebuilding process.
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