Cleveland Indians paying for Bourn in the future

Scott Boras has always been known to wait for the market to develop for his free agent clients. Sometimes it works, as evidenced by Prince Fielder’s nine-year $214 million contract with the Detroit Tigers in late January last offseason. Sometimes it doesn’t. Michael Bourn is an example of how Boras’s plan fails as he signs with the Cleveland Indians for $48 million for 4 years. However, from the perspective of the Indians, this is an absolute steal for a player who was rumored to be asking for $100 million at the start of the offseason, even though Bourn’s presence does not push the Indians even remotely close to a place in the playoff. 

Bourn went into the offseason as perhaps the best center fielder on the market with several contenders needing a center fielder. First, the Atlanta Braves signed B.J. Upton to replace Bourn. The San Francisco Giants re-signed Angel Pagan. Then, the Minnesota Twins supplied two other NL East teams with their center fielders via trade, Denard Span and Ben Revere. The Cincinnati Reds traded for Shin-Soo Choo and hoped that he can handle center field. As every team with a significant void in center field before the offseason begins fills their holes, the market for Bourn slows down and the remaining teams linked to Bourn’s services are either not in contention for a playoff spot like the New York Mets or have a lesser alternative in center field like the Texas Rangers. His price tag, along with the first-round draft pick the team signing him has to sacrifice, kept him unemployed until the day spring training begins.

The Cleveland Indians, sensing the opportunity of a bargain, swooped in and gave Bourn a contract of $12 million per season for four years. Just for comparison, Shane Victorino, who is about Bourn’s equal offensively but a much inferior fielder, received a higher annual salary of $13 million from the Boston Red Sox for three years despite being two years older than Bourn. The Indians are essentially paying Bourn to be a slightly above-average player for the next four seasons. Both Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs, despite their different formulas in the calculation of WAR, agree that Bourn has been worth about 20 WAR over the last four seasons. Even if the extremely positive fielding numbers are discounted, Bourn is still a four-win player, not a two-win player his salary suggests. Given his history over the last four seasons, Bourn will likely outplay his contract even as he ages through the next four years. Another incentive the Indians have over the other teams is that they only have to give up 3rd round pick to sign Bourn. This is the case because their first round pick is top-10 and protected, and their second round pick is lost with the signing of Nick Swisher. As a result, the Indians likely offer more money to Bourn than other teams because they lose a lesser pick for signing Bourn.

Bourn may seem like an odd fit to the Indians’ lineup at first glance as they already have two center fielders in Michael Brantley and Drew Stubbs. Upon closer inspection, Brantley has always been below average in center field according to advanced fielding metrics and is best suited to be a corner outfielder. On the other hand, Stubbs has a large platoon split over his career and probably should only bat against southpaws. Hence, Bourn is not taking away Brantley’s or Stubbs’s playing time but that of the player originally slotted into the DH spot (a replacement level player) as Swisher moves to first base and Mark Reynolds switches to DH.

The Indians, however, are nowhere near the playoff even with the addition of Bourn. Their lineup is respectable, and their outfield defense will be great if they put three center fielders in their outfield. Their pitching, on the other hand, is disastrous. Last year, the Indians’ pitching staff had the worst ERA in the American League with an ERA of 4.79. The starters, in particular, were terrible and had a collective ERA of 5.25. Despite the starter’s performance last season, the Indians did little to improve the rotation. The only additions to the rotation are Brett Myers, who did not even spend the last season starting, and Trevor Bauer, who has yet to prove himself in the big leagues. The Indians are banking on comeback seasons for both Ubaldo Jimenez and Justin Masterson. However, Jimenez seems to have forgotten how to throw a strike since coming from Colorado and Masterson is probably a mid-rotation starter instead of an ace.

Some might argue that there is no reason to paying Bourn more than $10 million this season as the Indians are not going to contend. However, at a time when teams lock up the star players earlier and earlier, it is difficult to tell if the Indians can make the same investment in the coming seasons when they hope to compete. If you think of Bourn’s contract as $48 million for three seasons from 2014 to 2016 with the added benefit of a few extra wins in 2013, the Indians’ investment in Michael Bourn will make a lot more sense.