The various projection systems are the closest we can come
to predicting future. I was thinking of what they currently lack, and the first
thing that came to mind was pitchers as batters. I then checked how each team
did with their pitchers last season. It turns out that the spread from the best
team, the Dodgers, to the worst team, the Pirates, is less than three wins. The
true talent level is much narrower than that, and there does not seem to be
much advantage gained by including pitcher batting in projections. Instead, I
decided to look at the history of pitchers as position players.
Since the first professional league in 1871, pitchers have
never hit above the league average. Their wRC+ has steadily declined over the
years, all the way to negative since the 1980s. Since the adoption of the
designated hitter in AL in 1973, pitchers have never had a wRC+ over 10, except
for 1974.
Given their terrible performance at the plate, it is good
for fans that pitchers have come to the plate less and less over the years. The
sharp decreases in 1981 and 1994 are results of shortened seasons. The reason
behind this is the increased usage of relief pitchers. The slight downward
trend in recent years might also be a result of managers realizing the
importance of each plate appearance and the diminished performance by the
starter as he goes through the lineup.
Fangraphs has an opaque way of calculating WAR for pitchers
as position players. While Baseball-Reference forces 0 WAR onto the pitchers as
a whole no matter how well they hit, pitchers can have positive to negative WAR
on Fangraphs, as long as all the position players, including pitchers, add up
to 570 WAR a year. After hovering around 0 WAR from 1973 to 2001, pitchers
suddenly experienced a sudden drop in value in 2002 and have not recovered
since. This is where Fangraphs’ non-transparent method confuses me. From 2001
to 2002, pitchers actually improved in terms of batting (from wRC+ of -11 to
-7). The majority of the difference stems from positional adjustment. While
pitchers received a boost 660 runs in positional adjustment in 2001, they only gained
546 runs in 2002 in about the same number of plate appearances. It seems that
pitcher positional adjustment is not constant, though there is nothing on the
site that explains how it is calculated.
This is not an article that is meant to explain anything. I
am simply looking at the history of pitchers as batters in a graphical and
pointing out the lack of clarity behind Fangraphs calculation of WAR for
pitchers.
All statistics courtesy of Fangraphs.
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