It was reported early today that Kevin Garnett will return to Boston on a three-year 34 million deal. It has always been a question of whether he will return to the Celtics, instead of where he will play if he returns. The Celtics are smart to bring him back, but the length of the deal requires justification. Let me analyze the situation.
The Celtics have been saving cap space over the years to prepare for this class of free agents. They have only Paul Pierce and Rajon Rondo making significant salary in the upcoming season with a
combined salary of around 27 million. The rest of players remaining on the roster are all on rookie deals. With a projected 58 million salary cap, the Celtics have close to 25 million of cap space. However, this class of free agents, after the opt-ins by Dwight Howard and Chris Paul, are rather thin in star power. The only star is Deron Williams, who not only plays the same position as Rondo, but has no intention whatsoever to come to Boston. The Celtics are better served retaining an aging star than overpaying someone like Brook Lopez and handcuffing themselves in the future.
Getting Garnett back at the very least ensures a chance to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals with Derrick Rose's injury an unknown for Chicago Bulls. However, I don't see any chance the Celtics can beat the Miami Heat unless either Lebron James or Dwyane Wade is injured. Some will point to this year's conference finals as evidence that the Celtics can still hang with the Heat. A major caveat: Chris Bosh was out for the first four games and did not see his usual minutes even after his return in Game 5. This brings us to another question: Are the Celtics content with just making the conference finals? Honestly, with the thin free agent class, I don't see many other options.
But why a three-year deal? Giving KG a two-year deal will have him come off the salary the same year as Paul Pierce. That may really be the time for the Celtics to rebuild. Although there aren't many stars in the 2014 free agent class right now, a lot can change in two years. Furthermore, KG will be 39 in three years and no one can guarantee his production then. I would rather pay him a higher annual salary such as a 25-million deal for two years than giving him the current deal.
With KG back, the Celtics are set at four-fifths of their starting lineup. Depending on whether you see KG as a center or power forward now, the other position is where the Celtics need to beef up. A few obvious choices to fill the position are Brandon Bass and Jeff Green, who missed the entire season due to a heart problem. Signing both of them at a combined salary of about 12 million a year for 2-3 years is an option as Green can also serve as the backup small forward. Ryan Anderson is an interesting name here as he can help to spread the floor for Rondo, but he may be too expensive as a restricted free agent to pry away from the Magic. Another position of need is backup shooting guard. The Celtics would be smart to pursue OJ Mayo, who can inject some youth to the team and spend some time at the point guard position. I believe that Mayo will ask for at least the mid-level exception. Mayo, Bradley and Rondo would serve as a nice three-guard rotation for the future. Ray Allen is also a possibility for a 10-million deal for two years if the Celtics fail to sign Mayo.
If the Celtics can retain Bass, Green, Greg Stiemsma, and add Mayo and another veteran wing like Pietrus, they can still contend for the Eastern Conference title for the next two years. But after that, KG's salary becomes a burden.
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