Restricted free agents are some of the youngest stars in the league coming off rookie deals. They rarely leave their teams because if the teams truly want to retain their restricted free agents, they have the right to match other teams' offers. However, when another team overpays a restricted free agent, it becomes a tough decision for the original teams. Some teams are going to make this decision by July 14, 3 days after their free agents can sign officially on July 11.
6 restricted free agents have already reportedly received offers from other teams. The two gaining the most interest are two max players, Eric Gordon and Roy Hibbert. Neither is expected to leave their
teams coming into free agency and despite the maximum offers they receive, the Hornets and Pacers are still expected to match the offers.
Eric Gordon is reported to receive the max offer worth 58 million dollars over 4 years from the Phoenix Suns. He is the main asset the New Orleans Hornets received in the trade of Chris Paul to the Los Angeles Clippers. Gordon is definitely a max player, if you just look at his on-court production. The problem is that he has been injured a lot over the last 3 seasons. He missed at least 20 games in both the 09-10 and 10-11 seasons, and appeared in only 9 games the last season. However, he is a rare wing player who can both catch-and-shoot and create his own shot by driving to the basket. He is probably a top-5 shooting guard when healthy and that definitely deserves a maximum contract. When you look at the state of the New Orleans Hornets, it seems even more unlikely for them to let Gordon go. If he leaves, they will have little to show for Chris Paul's trade. Furthermore, with the drafting of Anthony Davis and Austin Rivers last week (I don't like the selection of Austin Rivers for Hornets because I have difficulty envisioning him as a point guard, but that is another discussion), the Hornets have a pretty good core to build around. Add Eric Gordon to the duo and the Hornets can probably make the playoff in two years. That's why the Hornets should and would match the Suns' offer despite Gordon's statement that his heart belongs to Phoenix.
Roy Hibbert is also set to receive the same max offer from the Portland Trail Blazers. This is a curious move by the Blazers as they just drafted center Meyers Leonard last week. Lamarcus Aldridge is also big enough to slide to the center position for stretches of the game. Their current priority should be re-signing Nicolas Batum (who I will cover below) to pair with Wesley Matthews on the wing, with the point guard position filled by lottery pick Damian Lillard. This is not to say that Hibbert does not deserve this offer. Centers are rare in the league now, and Hibbert made big strides last season to earn his first all-star selection. The Indiana Pacers, along with Hibbert, also made progress to advance to the Eastern Conference Semifinals. A traditional center in Hibbert may also represent their only chance to capitalize on the Heat's lack of centers in the playoff. If they are to lose Hibbert, they may regress back to a first-round-and-out team. I fully expect the Pacers to match the offer by Trail Blazers and continue to improve as their young stars grow.
Nicolas Batum's status, on the other hand, is an uncertainty. He is reported to receive an offer of 44 million dollars over 4 years from the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Trail Blazers have repeatedly stated that Batum is part of their plan in the future, but have been reluctant to sign him to an extension that satisfies him. With their offer to Roy Hibbert, they may not be willing to keep Batum on a 11-million-per-year deal. This may lead to an interesting problem of timing for Portland. If the Pacers match Hibbert's offer quickly, I think that Portland will match Batum's offer. If they have to decide on whether to match Batum's offer before the Pacers make the same decision on Hibbert, they may choose to let go of Batum. If that happens, the Timberwolves will have to thank the Pacers. Batum is an athletic wing who can shoot and defend. He will fit nicely in the Wolves lineup lacking wing players with Ricky Rubio and Kevin Love. It is difficult to tell whether Trail Blazers will retain Batum. This decision depends largely on the offer to Hibbert and before the Pacers match Hibbert's offer, Batum is no lock to return.
Omer Asik and Landry Fields are both second round picks who have proven to be bargain for Chicago Bulls and New York Knicks. They are both eligible for the "Gilbert Arenas" exception. The "Gilbert Arenas" exception allows teams to sign second round picks to a backloaded contract with a starting salary equal to that of the mid-level exception. This exception was added to the CBA to allow the original teams the opportunity to sign their successful second round picks. It looks now that the exception has achieved the opposite purpose. Both the Bulls and the Knicks are unlikely to match the offers and should allow Asik and Field to leave to save some flexibility in the future.
Omer Asik will receive a deal of 25 million dollars over 3 years from Houston Rockets to serve as their center if they fail to trade for Dwight Howard. The deal likely consists of 5 million in each of the first two season and 15 million in the third season. The Chicago Bulls already have several long-term contracts in Derrick Rose, Carlos Boozer, and Joakim Noah. If you add Asik to the payroll, the Bulls are already approaching the luxury tax with just 4 players in the 14-15 season. And they will be paying 15 million dollars a year for a backup center who plays 15 minutes a game! This makes it a forgone conclusion that Asik will end up as a Rocket. The Rockets may be overpaying for a center who only plays on the defensive end of the floor, but as I said, centers are hard to come by in the league nowadays.
Toronto Raptors are overpaying even more for Landry Fields, who is probably not even a starting-caliber shooting guard. They will offer him 19 million dollars over 3 years, with 9 million in the third season. The Knicks are in a similar situation to the Bulls with Carmelo Anthony, Amare Stoudmire and Tyson Chandler on the book for 3 more seasons. They should not even consider re-signing Field for that kind of money. This contract looks even worse when you consider the fit. The Raptors already have two shooting guards in Demar Derozan and newly drafted Terrence Ross. One of the three will probably be asked to play small forward, but it is a question how effective they will be in that position. The main purpose of the offer seems to be eliminating the Knicks from the pursuit of Steve Nash in a possible sign-and-trade with the Suns. This, however, does not justify overpaying Fields to play a position already filled with talent.
(Updated) Jeremy Lin has signed an offer sheet worth slightly less than 30 million dollars over 4 years with the last year being a team option with the Houston Rockets. With their failure to acquire Nash, it should be an easy decision to make for the New York Knicks to match this offer. The Knicks did get Jason Kidd for a 9-million deal over 3 years, but at this point of his career he is a limited offensive player and provide most of his value on the defensive end. This kind of player does not deserve to start and should not play more than 25 minutes per game. Jeremy Lin is an effective player during his stint in the spotlight of New York. Honestly, I feel that this deal is reasonable just for Lin's production on the court alone, not to mention his marketing appeal. When Steve Nash and Goran Dragic signed yesterday, I thought Jeremy Lin might actually get a 40-million deal over 4 years, the maximum contract he can sign. I also believed that the Knicks would be willing to match that offer. Now that the contract is 10 million dollars less and includes a team option in the 4th year, I have no doubt that the Knicks will match it.
There are still seven days before July 11 when players can sign officially. Before then, plenty of other restricted free agents such as Jeremy Lin will receive offers from other teams. Their original teams are certain to have a tough decision to make as to whether they should retain their players. I will continue to update this post as more restricted free agents receive offer sheets.
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