Rudy Gay has finally been traded, through a three-team trade to the Toronto Raptors. Rudy Gay has always had the looks of a superstar, which probably earns him his max contract in the summer of 2010. However, he has never played up to his potential on the court and he is having probably his worst season statistically since his rookie season. This trade gives the Raptors a potential All-Star, while providing both the Grizzlies and the Pistons with financial relief in the future.
Looking at the trade through the perspective of the Raptors, they acquire Gay while sending Jose Calderon and Ed Davis away. There is also a second-round going from Toronto to Memphis but the pick is of marginal value. Gay is under contract for two more seasons after this one at about 18.5 million a year. Adding Gay puts the Raptors at 62 million dollars next season and out of the free agent market this summer. The Raptors probably looked at the free agent class and determined that no one of Gay’s talent will be willing to go to Toronto even if offered max contract. However, is Gay really worth the 18 million dollars he is getting next season? Gay is shooting a career-worst 40.8% from the field this season, with a PER of 14.52, the first time he has a below-average PER since his rookie year. His three-point shooting has actually regressed over the last two seasons at 31% this season while being a career 34% shooter. On defense, Gay has the physical tools to be above average, but Synergy Sports rates him as a subpar defender who ranks 277th among all players who have defended 25 plays, giving up 0.92 points per play. Rudy Gay is paid like an all-star, but has never played like one. With the Raptors five games out of the playoff now, it seems unlikely that the Raptors can catch up with both the Celtics and the Sixers even with the recent injury to Rajon Rondo. As such, the Raptors are hoping to compete in the next two years with Gay. Barring significant growth from Jonas Valanciunas and Terrence Ross, I see a team that tops out as a first-round playoff team in the coming seasons. Furthermore, the Raptors gave up a valuable expiring contract in Jose Calderon and a big man on rookie contract in Ed Davis. Jose Calderon has been fighting with Kyle Lowry for the starting point guard in Toronto. Given the lottery pick the Raptors gave up for Lowry and Lowry’s superior ability to create shots, Calderon has no place on the Raptors after this season. Ed Davis, on the other hand, is averaging 14.5 points and nearly 10 rebounds per 36 minutes. Although the Raptors have two other capable bigs in Valanciunas and Amir Johnson, Ed Davis is a much more useful two-way player than Andrea Bargnani who will continue to play 30 minutes a game despite having a terrible season. Given Rudy Gay’s contract, he should be a player of negative trade value. However, the Raptors gave up value in Ed Davis and handcuffed themselves financially for the next two seasons in order to acquire Gay, just to fight for an early exit in the playoffs.
From the Grizzlies’ perspective, the main reason behind the trade is to get out of Gay’s contract. The Grizzlies have proved that they can be successful in the playoff without Gay as they show in 2011. They get Tayshaun Prince and Austin Daye from the Pistons who will fill the void left behind by Gay. Daye is set to be a restricted free agent this summer. He has only played limited minutes this year, but has at times shown the outside shooting Memphis is lacking as his three-point percentage for this season is over 50%, albeit with a small sample size. Grizzlies can look at Daye’s remaining season as an audition for a contract in the summer. On the other hand, Prince has two years at 7 million dollars a year left on his contract. This is an overpay for Prince’s skills at this point. He has never been a volume shooter from distance though he shoots them at a high percentage. He has a strong reputation for his defense, though Synergy Sports ranks him 156th. Daye and Prince are unlikely to combine to produce Gay’s impact, but the difference between the salaries of Prince and Gay is worth the downgrade at the position. Furthermore, Grizzlies also obtain Ed Davis who can replace Zach Randolph when his contract ends in 2015. Grizzlies are the fourth best team in the West at best before the trade. This trade does not decrease their title chances this year significantly, but enables them to add pieces in the upcoming seasons. The potential of Davis along with financial flexibility created makes this trade a win for the Grizzlies.
For the Pistons, this is a move to clear cap space. They have cleared the 14 million dollars left on Prince’s contract in exchange of Calderon’s expiring contract. Given that their hope for the playoff this year is slim, they now have the cap space to sign a max player this summer. Calderon may also be retained at reasonable price if the Pistons want to move Brandon Knight off the ball. The future of the Pistons is still not bright, but now they have less money tied to their hands.
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